Week 3 · 2026

Weekly Card

As of Fri Sep 25, 2026 PT, injury recheck.

Updated Fri 9/25 injury recheck: NE +3 downgraded to Lean (edge 1.3, under the 2-point Best Bet floor). NYJ +6.5 dropped; card side is DET -6.5 (our number DET -8.1). Caleb Williams missed practice; Case Keenum expected to start Monday night; final statuses Saturday.

Best Bet Best Bets

DEN +2.5 vs LAR
IND +2.5 vs HOU

Lean Leans

ATL +5.5 @ GB
NE +3 @ JAX
CHI +4.5 vs PHI
LV +3 @ NO
MIA +11.5 vs KC (spec)

Pass Passes

SEA −7 @ WAS (injury priced)

Full card: Market vs Our Spread

Westgate = contest line of record (graded here). Market = CBS Sports Week 3 odds table, ~Sep 23, 2026 1:24 PM PT. Gap = points between the Westgate line and Our Spread, toward the card side. HFA 2.5 default; BAL @ DAL (Brazil) neutral site, HFA 0. Rest adjustments not applied this week (no verified rest deltas sourced).

Game	Westgate	Market	Our Spread	Gap	Tier	Card side	Result	Why
ATL @ GBThu 09/24	GB −5.5	GB −4.5	GB −2.4	3.1	Lean	ATL +5.5	WINATL 35, GB 14	GB OL cluster (Banks, Bako-Bewele) + Reed OUT; Penix starts. We are ~3 shorter on GB than Westgate.
SEA @ WASSun 09/27	SEA −7	SEA −7	WAS +7.5	0.5	Pass	SEA −7	PENDING	Daniels OUT and the market already moved on it. Pass: injury residue, no chase. Our Spread is now WAS +7.5.
CIN @ PITSun 09/27	CIN −3.5	CIN −3.5	CIN −1.0	2.5	Card	PIT +3.5	PENDING	Tuesday Lean on CIN eroded (CIN DL DNPs). Shape favors PIT but no tier pending final statuses.
NYJ @ DETSun 09/27	DET −6.5	DET −6.5	DET −8.1	1.6	Card	DET −6.5	PENDING	Dropped as a Lean: our number (DET −8.1) no longer supports NYJ +6.5.
TEN @ NYGSun 09/27	NYG −2.5	NYG −2.5	NYG −1.1	1.4	Card	TEN +2.5	PENDING	Dart season OUT fully priced; TEN RB DNPs cut both ways. No edge chase.
NE @ JAXSun 09/27	JAX −3	JAX −3	JAX −1.7	1.3	Lean	NE +3	PENDING	Downgraded Fri 9/25: NE edge rushers Dre'Mont Jones and Quintayvious Hutchins ruled out; edge now under our 2-point Best Bet floor.
KC @ MIASun 09/27	KC −11.5	KC −11.5	KC −4.1	7.4	Lean	MIA +11.5	PENDING	Speculative mega-dog. Opinion only; the model may underrate KC.
HOU @ INDSun 09/27	HOU −2.5	HOU −2.5	IND −4.2	6.7	Best Bet	IND +2.5	PENDING	Nico Collins likely out flips the HOU pass offense; Pierce (IND) also out but IND still preferred. Upgraded from Tuesday Lean.
CAR @ CLESun 09/27	CAR −2.5	CAR −2.5	CAR −2.5	0.0	Card	No side	NO SIDE	Our Spread equals the Westgate line. No side, not graded.
LAC @ BUFSun 09/27	BUF −7.5	BUF −7	BUF −8.9	1.4	Card	BUF −7.5	PENDING	Demoted from Lean to Card Fri 9/25. LAC TE unit gutted (Njoku IR, Kolar out); gap stays under 2.
MIN @ TBSun 09/27	MIN −1.5	MIN −1.5	MIN −5.4	3.9	Card	MIN −1.5	PENDING	Demoted from Best Bet to Card Fri 9/25. Kyler Murray starts after clearing concussion protocol; our rating was built on Wentz starts.
ARI @ SFSun 09/27	SF −8.5	SF −8.5	SF −8.4	0.1	Card	ARI +8.5	PENDING	Aligned; WR questions already in the number.
LV @ NOSun 09/27	NO −3	NO −3	LV −0.8	3.8	Lean	LV +3	PENDING	Kelvin Banks Jr. (LT) IR + Bowers expected back: we flip the Saints to underdog.
BAL @ DAL (Brazil)Sun 09/27	BAL −3.5	BAL −3.5	BAL −3.5	0.0	Card	No side	NO SIDE	Neutral site, HFA 0. Exact alignment with Westgate. No side, not graded.
LAR @ DENSun 09/27	LAR −2.5	LAR −2.5	DEN −0.4	2.9	Best Bet	DEN +2.5	PENDING	Upgraded from Lean to Best Bet Fri 9/25. Nacua questionable + home field flips a thin LAR road edge.
PHI @ CHIMon 09/28	PHI −4.5	PHI −4.5	CHI +1.1	3.4	Lean	CHI +4.5	PENDING	Upgraded from Pass to Lean Fri 9/25. Side stays CHI +4.5. Our Spread is now CHI +1.1.

Power ratings: healthy → injury-adjusted

Points vs a league-average team. Injury Δ = our player-value layer (Out/Doubtful full value, Questionable/DNP ~half). Rank is display only.

#	Team	Healthy	Injury Δ	Adjusted	Drivers
1	MIN	+5.7	−0.6	+5.1	Jones Q
2	SF	+6.5	−1.6	+4.9	Evans Q −0.8, Robinson −0.8
3	SEA	+4.6	0	+4.6	Darnold TBD; no forced change
4	KC	+3.4	0	+3.4	Simmons still inactive (baseline)
5	LV	+2.9	+0.5	+3.4	Bowers expected return
6	NE	+2.6	0	+2.6	Brown IR baked in
7	BAL	+2.5	−1.3	+1.2	Flowers Q −0.7, Stanley Q −0.6
8	JAX	+1.0	0	+1.0
9	BUF	+1.8	−0.9	+0.9	Coleman Q −0.5, Oliver Q −0.4
10	CIN	+1.1	−0.3	+0.8	Iosivas IR
11	LAR	+1.5	−1.0	+0.5	Nacua Q; Garrett baked in
12	CAR	+1.6	−1.2	+0.4	Brooks IR −0.8, Phillips Q −0.4
13	NO	+1.9	−1.8	+0.1	Banks LT IR
14	DET	+0.1	−0.3	−0.2	Soft OL limiteds
15	CHI	+4.6	−5.0	−0.4	Caleb −4.0, Bagent/Keenum −1.0
16	NYJ	+0.5	−1.1	−0.6	Taylor −0.6, Fitzpatrick −0.5
17	ARI	−1.0	0	−1.0	Clean Wed report
18	DEN	−1.3	−0.3	−1.6	RB body soft
19	DAL	−1.3	−1.0	−2.3	Secondary cluster
20	IND	−1.3	−1.2	−2.5	Pierce IR
21	PIT	−2.2	−0.5	−2.7	Pittman Q
22	TB	−2.8	0	−2.8
23	MIA	−2.7	−0.5	−3.2	Douglas Q
24	PHI	−2.5	−1.5	−4.0	Goedert −1.2, Saquon soft −0.3
25	HOU	−2.2	−2.0	−4.2	Collins
26	CLE	−4.2	−0.4	−4.6	Jenkins
27	ATL	−5.9	+1.2	−4.7	Penix +2.0, Ebukam −0.8
28	GB	−0.3	−4.5	−4.8	Reed −1.5, Banks −1.2, Bako −1.0, Brinson −0.4, Hargrave Q −0.4
29	TEN	−4.2	−1.0	−5.2	RB cluster Q
30	LAC	−3.0	−2.5	−5.5	Njoku −1.5, Kolar −0.5, Slater Q −0.5
31	NYG	−2.3	−4.3	−6.6	Dart −3.5, Burns Q −0.8
32	WAS	−5.2	−3.5	−8.7	Daniels OUT

Missing / not used this week

Week 3 SuperContest / Gold Selections PDFs (contestant pick tallies) were not posted when the card was built, so the contest-leader overlay is blank this week.
Final Friday/Saturday practice reports: several statuses were Wednesday DNP / Questionable only (valued at ~50%).
Rest/travel adjustments not applied beyond Brazil HFA 0.
Ticket vs handle splits: not used this week (blank, not invented).

Lines: Westgate SuperContest Week 3 card (official PDF). SuperContest Gold lines identical.