Week 3 · 2026
Weekly Card
As of Fri Sep 25, 2026 PT, injury recheck.
Updated Fri 9/25 injury recheck: NE +3 downgraded to Lean (edge 1.3, under the 2-point Best Bet floor). NYJ +6.5 dropped; card side is DET -6.5 (our number DET -8.1). Caleb Williams missed practice; Case Keenum expected to start Monday night; final statuses Saturday.
Best Bet Best Bets
- DEN +2.5 vs LAR
- IND +2.5 vs HOU
Lean Leans
- ATL +5.5 @ GB
- NE +3 @ JAX
- CHI +4.5 vs PHI
- LV +3 @ NO
- MIA +11.5 vs KC (spec)
Pass Passes
- SEA −7 @ WAS (injury priced)
Full card: Market vs Our Spread
Westgate = contest line of record (graded here). Market = CBS Sports Week 3 odds table, ~Sep 23, 2026 1:24 PM PT. Gap = points between the Westgate line and Our Spread, toward the card side. HFA 2.5 default; BAL @ DAL (Brazil) neutral site, HFA 0. Rest adjustments not applied this week (no verified rest deltas sourced).
| Game | Westgate | Market | Our Spread | Gap | Tier | Card side | Result | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ GBThu 09/24 | GB −5.5 | GB −4.5 | GB −2.4 | 3.1 | Lean | ATL +5.5 | WINATL 35, GB 14 | GB OL cluster (Banks, Bako-Bewele) + Reed OUT; Penix starts. We are ~3 shorter on GB than Westgate. |
| SEA @ WASSun 09/27 | SEA −7 | SEA −7 | WAS +7.5 | 0.5 | Pass | SEA −7 | PENDING | Daniels OUT and the market already moved on it. Pass: injury residue, no chase. Our Spread is now WAS +7.5. |
| CIN @ PITSun 09/27 | CIN −3.5 | CIN −3.5 | CIN −1.0 | 2.5 | Card | PIT +3.5 | PENDING | Tuesday Lean on CIN eroded (CIN DL DNPs). Shape favors PIT but no tier pending final statuses. |
| NYJ @ DETSun 09/27 | DET −6.5 | DET −6.5 | DET −8.1 | 1.6 | Card | DET −6.5 | PENDING | Dropped as a Lean: our number (DET −8.1) no longer supports NYJ +6.5. |
| TEN @ NYGSun 09/27 | NYG −2.5 | NYG −2.5 | NYG −1.1 | 1.4 | Card | TEN +2.5 | PENDING | Dart season OUT fully priced; TEN RB DNPs cut both ways. No edge chase. |
| NE @ JAXSun 09/27 | JAX −3 | JAX −3 | JAX −1.7 | 1.3 | Lean | NE +3 | PENDING | Downgraded Fri 9/25: NE edge rushers Dre'Mont Jones and Quintayvious Hutchins ruled out; edge now under our 2-point Best Bet floor. |
| KC @ MIASun 09/27 | KC −11.5 | KC −11.5 | KC −4.1 | 7.4 | Lean | MIA +11.5 | PENDING | Speculative mega-dog. Opinion only; the model may underrate KC. |
| HOU @ INDSun 09/27 | HOU −2.5 | HOU −2.5 | IND −4.2 | 6.7 | Best Bet | IND +2.5 | PENDING | Nico Collins likely out flips the HOU pass offense; Pierce (IND) also out but IND still preferred. Upgraded from Tuesday Lean. |
| CAR @ CLESun 09/27 | CAR −2.5 | CAR −2.5 | CAR −2.5 | 0.0 | Card | No side | NO SIDE | Our Spread equals the Westgate line. No side, not graded. |
| LAC @ BUFSun 09/27 | BUF −7.5 | BUF −7 | BUF −8.9 | 1.4 | Card | BUF −7.5 | PENDING | Demoted from Lean to Card Fri 9/25. LAC TE unit gutted (Njoku IR, Kolar out); gap stays under 2. |
| MIN @ TBSun 09/27 | MIN −1.5 | MIN −1.5 | MIN −5.4 | 3.9 | Card | MIN −1.5 | PENDING | Demoted from Best Bet to Card Fri 9/25. Kyler Murray starts after clearing concussion protocol; our rating was built on Wentz starts. |
| ARI @ SFSun 09/27 | SF −8.5 | SF −8.5 | SF −8.4 | 0.1 | Card | ARI +8.5 | PENDING | Aligned; WR questions already in the number. |
| LV @ NOSun 09/27 | NO −3 | NO −3 | LV −0.8 | 3.8 | Lean | LV +3 | PENDING | Kelvin Banks Jr. (LT) IR + Bowers expected back: we flip the Saints to underdog. |
| BAL @ DAL (Brazil)Sun 09/27 | BAL −3.5 | BAL −3.5 | BAL −3.5 | 0.0 | Card | No side | NO SIDE | Neutral site, HFA 0. Exact alignment with Westgate. No side, not graded. |
| LAR @ DENSun 09/27 | LAR −2.5 | LAR −2.5 | DEN −0.4 | 2.9 | Best Bet | DEN +2.5 | PENDING | Upgraded from Lean to Best Bet Fri 9/25. Nacua questionable + home field flips a thin LAR road edge. |
| PHI @ CHIMon 09/28 | PHI −4.5 | PHI −4.5 | CHI +1.1 | 3.4 | Lean | CHI +4.5 | PENDING | Upgraded from Pass to Lean Fri 9/25. Side stays CHI +4.5. Our Spread is now CHI +1.1. |
Power ratings: healthy → injury-adjusted
Points vs a league-average team. Injury Δ = our player-value layer (Out/Doubtful full value, Questionable/DNP ~half). Rank is display only.
| # | Team | Healthy | Injury Δ | Adjusted | Drivers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIN | +5.7 | −0.6 | +5.1 | Jones Q |
| 2 | SF | +6.5 | −1.6 | +4.9 | Evans Q −0.8, Robinson −0.8 |
| 3 | SEA | +4.6 | 0 | +4.6 | Darnold TBD; no forced change |
| 4 | KC | +3.4 | 0 | +3.4 | Simmons still inactive (baseline) |
| 5 | LV | +2.9 | +0.5 | +3.4 | Bowers expected return |
| 6 | NE | +2.6 | 0 | +2.6 | Brown IR baked in |
| 7 | BAL | +2.5 | −1.3 | +1.2 | Flowers Q −0.7, Stanley Q −0.6 |
| 8 | JAX | +1.0 | 0 | +1.0 | |
| 9 | BUF | +1.8 | −0.9 | +0.9 | Coleman Q −0.5, Oliver Q −0.4 |
| 10 | CIN | +1.1 | −0.3 | +0.8 | Iosivas IR |
| 11 | LAR | +1.5 | −1.0 | +0.5 | Nacua Q; Garrett baked in |
| 12 | CAR | +1.6 | −1.2 | +0.4 | Brooks IR −0.8, Phillips Q −0.4 |
| 13 | NO | +1.9 | −1.8 | +0.1 | Banks LT IR |
| 14 | DET | +0.1 | −0.3 | −0.2 | Soft OL limiteds |
| 15 | CHI | +4.6 | −5.0 | −0.4 | Caleb −4.0, Bagent/Keenum −1.0 |
| 16 | NYJ | +0.5 | −1.1 | −0.6 | Taylor −0.6, Fitzpatrick −0.5 |
| 17 | ARI | −1.0 | 0 | −1.0 | Clean Wed report |
| 18 | DEN | −1.3 | −0.3 | −1.6 | RB body soft |
| 19 | DAL | −1.3 | −1.0 | −2.3 | Secondary cluster |
| 20 | IND | −1.3 | −1.2 | −2.5 | Pierce IR |
| 21 | PIT | −2.2 | −0.5 | −2.7 | Pittman Q |
| 22 | TB | −2.8 | 0 | −2.8 | |
| 23 | MIA | −2.7 | −0.5 | −3.2 | Douglas Q |
| 24 | PHI | −2.5 | −1.5 | −4.0 | Goedert −1.2, Saquon soft −0.3 |
| 25 | HOU | −2.2 | −2.0 | −4.2 | Collins |
| 26 | CLE | −4.2 | −0.4 | −4.6 | Jenkins |
| 27 | ATL | −5.9 | +1.2 | −4.7 | Penix +2.0, Ebukam −0.8 |
| 28 | GB | −0.3 | −4.5 | −4.8 | Reed −1.5, Banks −1.2, Bako −1.0, Brinson −0.4, Hargrave Q −0.4 |
| 29 | TEN | −4.2 | −1.0 | −5.2 | RB cluster Q |
| 30 | LAC | −3.0 | −2.5 | −5.5 | Njoku −1.5, Kolar −0.5, Slater Q −0.5 |
| 31 | NYG | −2.3 | −4.3 | −6.6 | Dart −3.5, Burns Q −0.8 |
| 32 | WAS | −5.2 | −3.5 | −8.7 | Daniels OUT |
Missing / not used this week
- Week 3 SuperContest / Gold Selections PDFs (contestant pick tallies) were not posted when the card was built, so the contest-leader overlay is blank this week.
- Final Friday/Saturday practice reports: several statuses were Wednesday DNP / Questionable only (valued at ~50%).
- Rest/travel adjustments not applied beyond Brazil HFA 0.
- Ticket vs handle splits: not used this week (blank, not invented).
Lines: Westgate SuperContest Week 3 card (official PDF). SuperContest Gold lines identical.